Modeling Politics (POLS 190 — Freshman Seminar)
(Revision date: 29 October 2009)

Course Content and Objectives:
This seminar in an introduction to the three most important approaches to mathematical modeling in political science: (1) statistical modeling, (2) systems modeling, and (3) rational choice / game theory modeling. This course is perfect for those who may want to consider pursuing the "very cool" joint major in political science and mathematics. The only prerequisite for this course is that a student either must be concurrently enrolled in Math 111 or 112 (Calculus I or II) or have received a score of 4 or 5 on either the Calculus AB or BC Advanced Placement exams.

One of the admitted goals of this major is to encourage students to think about becoming political scientists with math skills. (The job prospects for professionals with math and statistics competence are spectacular. Have you heard my pitch on this subject? If you ever wanted a job with the potential to become a superstar in a profession, this is IT.)

I feel confident that you will all do fine in the course. Just remember to hand in all the assignments on the due date. The course grade is based on the quality of regular assignments and attendance.

The reading assignments listed below in the weekly outline are required of all students. Additional suggested reading assignments will be given as the course proceeds, and these readings will focus on applications of the methods covered in the core texts. All students are recommended to work together, sharing information and discoveries.

Class Requirements:

Weekly reading and weekly writing assignments are matched with class discussions, all focusing on the use and interpretation of various modeling approaches to the study of social and political phenomena. The course grade depends on the evaluation of all writing assignments, attendance, and participation.

There are no exams. The grades are determined as follows:

10% Discussion and participation
10% Attendance
80% Assignments

The Department of Political Science has a grading standard that applies to all courses. You can read about it here.

The Honor Code is strictly enforced in this course. Plagiarism is an honor code violation. A signature forgery on attendance is an honor code violation.

Podcast Policy:

Podcasting courses can assist students tremendously. Students can listen to lectures more than once, and they can catch up on classes that were missed for, say, reasons of illness or religious obligation. I record and podcast many of the classes in this course. By taking this course, all students are automatically giving their permission to be recorded during class participation. No further written permission is required.

Disabilities Statement:

It is the policy of Emory University to make reasonable accommodations for qualified students with disabilities. All students with special requests or need for accommodations should make this request in person as soon as possible after first visiting the Office of Disabilities.

Required Texts:

Required Texts:
Applied Regression: An Introduction, by Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Graph Algebra: Mathematical Modeling with a Systems Approach, by Courtney Brown
Differential Equations: A Modeling Approach, by Courtney Brown
Game Theory: A Nontechnical Introduction, by Morton D. Davis

Reserved Reading: (click to see entire listing)

Goldstein, Larry J, David I. Schneider, and Martha J. Siegel. 1988. Finite Mathematics and Its Applications, Third Edition. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Internet Resources:

Emory University Library's Political Methodology Research Guide
Emory University's Electronic Data Center
Gary King's excellent advice on writing your first publishable paper
How to Use a Codebook, from Princeton University
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR)
National Election Studies, The University of Michigan
Rice Virtual Lab in Statistics
Statistical Abstract of the United States
Statistics Calculators from UCLA
SticiGui Online Statistics Text, by Philip B. Stark, University of California, Berkeley
Surf Stat, an online statistics text

Special Meeting:

Dr. Rob O'Reilly and Chris Palazzolo will meet with the class on TBA at the normal class time in the Electronic Classroom of Woodruff Library, room 312. This meeting is both vitally important and required of all students. Dr. O'Reilly will present an overview of how students can access a variety of data sources with which they can conduct empirical analyses. Chris Palazzolo will present an overview of a variety of data and statistical library resources that are in print.

WEEKLY OUTLINE

Part I: Statistical Modeling

Week 1:
Discussions: Thinking about probability
Readings:
Goldstein & Schneider, "Probability," chapter 6

Week 2:
Discussions: Conditional and Bayesian probability
Readings:
Goldstein & Schneider, "Probability and Statistics," chapter 7

Week 3:
Discussions: Elementary descriptive statistics and bivariate regression
Readings:
Applied Regression, chapter 1
Polsby, Nelson W. 1969 (March). "The Institutionalization of the U.S. House of Representatives," American Political Science Review, Vol. 62, No. 1, pp. 144-68.
Packel, chapter 4
Written Assignment: Assignment #1, due Thursday, September 10

Week 4:
Discussions: Multiple regression
Readings:
Applied Regression, chapter 3
Patterson, Samuel C, and Gregory A Caldiera. 1983 (September). "Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections," American Political Science ReView, Vol. 77, No. 3, pp. 675-89.
Packel, chapter 5
Written Assignment: Assignment #2, due Thursday, September 17

Week 5:
Discussions: Regression assumptions and testing
Readings:
Applied Regression, chapter 2
Patterson, Samuel C, and Gregory A Caldiera. 1984 (September). "The Etiology of Partican Competition," American Political Science Review, Vol. 78, No. 3, pp. 691-707.
Packel, chapter 7
Written Assignment: Assignment #3, due Thursday, September 24
First Oral Presentation with PowerPoint

Part II: Modeling Social Systems

Week 6:
Discussions: What is "dynamic modeling?"
Readings:
Goldstein & Schneider, "Difference Equations," chapter 11
Brown (Graph Algebra), chapters 1 & 2;
Brown (Diff. Eq.), chapters 1 & 2.
Sprague, "One-Party Dominance in Legislatures"
Written Assignment: Assignment #4, due Thursday, October 1

Week 7:
Discussions: Elementary Systems
Readings:
Brown (Graph Algebra), chapters 3 & 4;
Brown (Diff. Eq.), chapters 3 & 4;
Przeworski, Adam. 1975. Institutionalization of Voting Patterns, or is Mobilization the Source of Decay. American Political Science Review, 69:49-67
Written Assignment: Assignment #5, due Thursday, October 8

Week 9:
Discussions: The wild side - nonlinearities, chaos, and catastrophes
Readings:
Dynamic Modeling, chapters 5&6
Przeworski, Adam and Glaucio A. D. Soares. 1971. Theories in Search of a Curve: A Contextual Interpretation of Left Vote. American Political Science Review 65:51-65
Brown (Graph Algebra), chapter 9
Brown (Diff. Eq.), chapter 8.
Written Assignment: Assignment #6, due Tuesday, October 20

Part III: Rational Choice Theory and Game Theory

Week 10:
Discussions: The basics of game theory
Readings:
Goldstein & Schneider, "The Theory of Games," chapter 9
Davis, Chapters 1 & 2
Written Assignment: Assignment #7, due Tuesday, October 27

Week 11:
Discussions: Applied game theory
Readings:
Goldstein & Schneider, "The Theory of Games," chapter 9
Davis, Chapters 3 & 4
Laver, Michael and Kenneth A. Shepsle. 1998. Events, Equilibria, and Government Survival. American Journal of Political Science 42: 28-54.
Coleman, Jules and John Ferejohn. 1986. Democracy and Social Choice. Ethics 97: 6-25.
Written Assignment: Assignment #8, due Thursday, November 5

Week 12:
Discussions: Anthony Down's An Economic Theory of Democracy (PowerPoint file)
Readings:
Davis, Chapters 5 & 6
Written Assignment: Assignment #9, due TBA

Week 13:
Discussions: Frontiers of modeling
Assignment: Class Presentations

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